How many comparable trades?
A small or mixed sample can make win rate and average outcomes unstable.
FREE TRADING TOOL · PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Trading Expectancy Calculator
Combine win rate, average wins, average losses and costs to estimate the average result per trade. Work in R so trades of different sizes remain comparable.
Calculated in your browser. Values are not sent to BTI.
EXPECTANCY PER TRADE
+0.21RPositive expectancy from the entered assumptions
BREAK-EVEN WIN RATE37.50%
REQUIRED AVG. WIN1.33R
GROSS PROFIT FACTOR1.47
SCENARIO RESULT+21.00R
ACCOUNT IMPACT+21.00%
EXPECTED SPLIT45W · 55L
NEGATIVE0RPOSITIVE
With these inputs, the average-value scenario is +0.21R per trade and +21.00R over 100 trades. This is not a forecast.
Educational calculator. Results are scenarios based on your inputs and do not predict future returns or the sequence of wins and losses.
THE EXPECTANCY FORMULA
Win rate is only one part of the equation.
A strategy can win often and still lose when its average loss is too large. It can also win less often and remain positive when winning trades are large enough.
EXPECTANCY(Win rate × average win)
− (Loss rate × average loss)
− average cost per trade
− (Loss rate × average loss)
− average cost per trade
EXAMPLE · 100 TRADES
45 wins × 1.80R+81.00R
55 losses × 1.00R−55.00R
100 costs × 0.05R−5.00R
Scenario result+21.00R
Average: +0.21R per tradeREAD THE RESULT CAREFULLY
Expectancy describes an average, not the path.
A positive average can still include long losing sequences and deep drawdowns. The quality of the output depends on the quality and comparability of the underlying trades.
What hides behind the average?
Outliers, partial exits and clustered losses can create very different paths to the same mean.
Planned R or realized R?
Use actual fills, costs and initial risk when evaluating completed trades.
CONNECT THE METRICS
One number should lead to the next question.
Use the calculator as an entry point, then examine the ratio, drawdown and trade-level evidence behind the average.
BTI PULSE
Replace assumptions with your actual trade history.
PULSE organizes imported and reviewed trades into performance metrics you can filter by account, setup, instrument and period. Use expectancy beside win rate, profit factor, R-multiples and drawdown to investigate where results came from.
Expectancy in context
Review the average beside the sample that produced it.
R-based analysis
Compare outcomes independently of position size.
Focused filters
Separate accounts, setups and trading periods.
Journal evidence
Connect metrics with screenshots, notes and rule adherence.
A PRACTICAL EXPECTANCY REVIEW
Move from the average to the evidence.
- 01FILTER
Select comparable trades from the same strategy and conditions.
- 02VERIFY
Check fills, initial risk, costs and corrected trade data.
- 03CALCULATE
Measure win rate, average win, average loss and expectancy.
- 04STRESS TEST
Change the assumptions and examine losing sequences and drawdown.
- 05REVIEW
Find the setups and decisions that explain the result.
FAQ
Questions about trading expectancy.
What is trading expectancy?
Trading expectancy is the average result per trade implied by a win rate, average winning result, average losing result and trading costs. It can be expressed in money, percentage or R-multiples.
How is trading expectancy calculated?
Multiply win probability by average win, subtract loss probability multiplied by average loss, then subtract average costs per trade. Enter losses as a positive magnitude in this calculator.
What does positive expectancy mean?
Positive expectancy means the entered averages produce a result above zero per trade. It does not guarantee that future results will be positive or that the input estimates are reliable.
Can a low win rate have positive expectancy?
Yes. A lower win rate can still produce positive expectancy when average winning trades are sufficiently larger than average losing trades and costs.
Why include trading costs?
Commission, spread, slippage and financing costs reduce realized results. Even small average costs can materially change expectancy when the gross edge is small.
How many trades are needed to trust expectancy?
There is no universal number. Reliability depends on the strategy, market conditions, result distribution and consistency of execution. Use comparable trades and examine uncertainty rather than treating a small sample as conclusive.
Is expected R over several trades a forecast?
No. It is a simple average-value scenario that assumes the entered statistics remain unchanged. Real sequences vary, losses cluster and future market conditions can differ.
FROM ESTIMATE TO EVIDENCE
Calculate the average.
Investigate what created it.
Use the free calculator for a quick scenario, then bring the complete trading history and review context together in PULSE.
Explore PULSE